Play of the Day: May 7, 2011

Background 
For today's play of the game I look to a 4:05PM EST game featuring the Toronto Blue Jays and the Detroit Tigers. Two old AL East rivals play the second game of a 4 game set north of the border in Toronto. This game will feature the aces of both teams with Ricky Romero on the hill for the Jays and Justin Verlander for the Tigers. The Blue Jays beat the Tigers last night by a score of 7-4. The game was not as close as the score indicates after a terrific pitching performance by Jesse Litsch, the Tigers scored 3 runs in the top of the 9th off Shawn Camp to make it close.

Analysis:
Romero is only 2-3 on the year but sports a very respectable 3.00 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. His problem is run-support. Besides the 13-3 beat-down the Jays laid on the Twins on opening night Romero has received 4 or more runs of support just once and that was his last start, which he won. Over his last 2 starts Romero has allowed 4 total runs in 13 innings (good for a 2.77 ERA) against the Rays and Yankees. Romero is trending upwards and I look for a great performance from Toronto's ace this afternoon.

Verlander is also 2-3 o the year with a 3.75 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Also very good numbers. However, away from Comerica Park Verlander's ERA jumps to 4.05 in 20 innings of work.  In each of his last 2 starts Verlander has gone 6 innings allowing 3 earned runs. He earned a no-decision in his last start but the Tigers still lost. He has not won since April 22nd. He will need to last more than 6 innings this afternoon if Detroit is going to win because their bullpen cannot get it done.

Pick
My pick for this game is Blue Jays +105.

Reason for Pick
With both aces going I was looking at the under which is set at 7.5 but both pitchers have the ability to have really bad games. Also, the offenses of these teams are pretty potent with the potential of Bautista and Hill to return to the Jays line-up and Victor Martinez making his return off the 15-day DL recently. So, I think the Blue Jays have the pitching advantage. Verlander those a lot of pitches, because he is a strikeout guy, but he won't be enough. Take the Blue Jays for some plus-money. Good Luck!